Looking Back, How Did Donald Trump Win the 2016 Election?

The unexpected outcome

 In 2016, one of the biggest global issues was the 2016 U.S. presidential election. The two major candidates were Donald Trump from the Republican Party and Hilary Clinton from the Democratic Party. Without a doubt, it was expected for Hilary to triumph. However, after the ballot counting, it turned out Donald Trump was the decisive winner. While those who were adults in 2016 would know what led to such an outcome, many of our readers, who were elementary schoolers at that time, wouldn’t be aware of much information regarding this election. Let’s look at one of the major factors that led to such a result.

Rust Belt

 We often hear the term ‘Rust Belt' from time to time on the news.  It refers to the area around the Great Lakes which has been well-known for its manufacturing infrastructures. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Upstate New York, and more are key locations in the ‘Rust Belt’. This area was called ‘the industrial heartland of America’ ’ when the US was flourishing as a manufacturing industry in the 1900s. So, why does this region matter? Many so-called ‘Swing States’ are located in this area. The term ‘Swing States’ refers to states which are neutral in comparison, and therefore are the key to the election. Even so, many expected the majority of states in this area to throw votes toward the Democrats. Many of the states included in the Rust Belt, were considered part of the ‘Blue Wall,’ which refers to the 18 states in which the Democrats have continued to be pervasive. In fact, the Democratic Party won the states classified as the ‘Blue Wall’ in every presidential election ever since from 1992 to 2012. Therefore, many expected the ‘Blue Wall’ to act as the foundation for Hilary’s, the Democratic Party’s, victory, as it did over the last decade. It was that very misconception that eventually led to the Democratic Party’s defeat. 

 

 The reason many states from the ‘Rust Belt’ were considered traditional Democrats was because these states were centered around the manufacturing industry, and therefore had a large proportion of those in the working class; since the trade union was traditionally the underlying support for the Democratic Party. However, the manufacturing industry started declining after the 1970s, leading many workers to become unemployed. As a result, the population of middle-class residencies, especially the ‘Rust Belt’ declined 21%p over 37 years. Such decline led to the decline of unions, the loyal groundwork of the Democratic Party, and the weakened cohesiveness of the worker class. 

Turnaround 

 As mentioned above, the ‘Rust Belt’ area was considered an obvious win for the Democratic Party; at least by the Hillary Clinton presidential campaign themselves. This, along with the poor health condition of Hilary Clinton herself (she showed signs of health problems such as coughing and vertigo occasionally), led to the low rate of Hilary’s win for states included in the ‘Rust Belt’. It wasn’t that there weren’t concerns regarding it; some executives of the Democratic Party, especially the husband of Hillary, Bill Clinton, warned Hillary that she should more actively target the ‘Rust Belt’, and Bill even had a fierce quarrel with her about it. Unlike Hillary, Donald Trump was more enthusiastic than anybody in his election campaign in the ‘Rust Belt’ region, promising their people what they desired most: jobs. On the last day of the election, he campaigned around 5 different states in one day, parading his stamina and perseverance in contrast to Hillary’s health issues. 

 

 The result was astonishing. 4 out of 18 ‘Blue Wall’ states turned their backs on Hillary and threw votes for a president from the Republican Party, which was an unprecedented event since the term ‘Blue Wall’ was established in the 1990s. All four of them were from the ‘Rust Belt’ area, indicating that the campaign strategy of Donald worked and that of Hillary was a miscalculation. After the official confirmation of Hillary’s defeat was set, former president Barack Obama commented that “one of the issues the Democrats have to be clear on is that given the population distribution across the country, we(the Democrats) have to compete everywhere; we have to show up everywhere.” 

 

Yun Seoheon (1-8)¹ | Staff Reporter

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1) yunseoheon10812@gmail.com